mgroves

Lost has a history of offing its characters, particularly when their character arc has run out of steam. Here’s my list of eleven characters and their odds of dying before the end of Season Three.

1. Anthony Cooper – 1:1
   Locke’s biological father, mysteriously transported to the island, is a goner. If Locke doesn’t kill him, Sawyer (whose namesake he, in all likelihood, inspired) will.
2. Charlie – 2:1
   Desmond’s premonitions place Charlie squarely on the chopping block and his flashbacks are at a dead end. The only thing that might keep him alive is that his death seems so obvious. The writers might zig when you expect them to zag.
3. Sayid – 5:1
   What more is there left to say about our resident Iraqi torturer? There’s that girl who got away but that’s about it. I think he’s got a date with the smoke monster before season’s end.
4. Jack – 10:1
   Mathew Fox is their marquee name but his arc has run dry. His flashbacks now seem inconsequential, explaining the back story of his tattoos. Rather than have an entire episode detailing the early days of his 5 o’clock shadow, they might just call it quits. On the other hand, there is that dangling thread with his unknown half-sister to keep him around for the payoff.
5. Carl – 10:1
   Ben is not going to let this punk kid get his daughter pregnant. It would also keep him and his arc exclusively in Season Three; nice and tidy.
6. Sun – 20:1
   Since all pregnant women who conceived on the island die, we can assume her days are numbered (abortion and rescue not withstanding). I give her a couple more months on island, which could stretch out to two seasons more on the show.
7. Jin – 25:1
   Since he is inexorably linked with Sun, it’s difficult to see him stick around if/when Sun leaves.
8. Kate – 30:1
   With sperm-counts five times higher on the island, Kate is bound to get preggers soon. And since pregnant equals dead, it will take a lot more than a toy plane flashback to save her. In addition, Evangeline Lilly’s relationship with Dominic Monaghan might necessitate her departure in relation to Charlie’s death.
9. Locke – 50:1
   Locke is easily the most complex and interesting character on the show. There’s still some ground to cover with this guy who just couldn’t catch a break. As long as they keep Terry O’Quinn happy, he should be around for a while longer.
10. Sawyer – 75:1
    I predict the dangling thread about his daughter will tie in with him knocking up Kate. And being the primary draw for the show’s female audience, he’s just too sexy to die.
11. Desmond – 100:1
    Lost may go down in history as the only show to introduce its main character in season two. By all accounts, this is Desmond’s story. He is the mythic hero, like Odysseus, cursed by fate, who will be reunited with his love against all odds. We, at the very least, still have some military and prison flashbacks before we see him in another life. I don’t see him going away anytime soon.

Hurley? Claire? Ben? Juliet? Where do they fit on the list? They could all go either way. Michael could come back and shoot them all.

It will be interesting to see how completely wrong I am in the next couple of weeks.

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