April 25th, 2007 | 
Author: I came across Shattering the Bell Curve while reading one of my favorite economics blogs, EconLog.
When talking about assumptions for predictive statistical models, David A. Shaywitz suggests that there is a lot inconsistency and inaccuracy in many statistical models, due to incorrect assumptions about distributions. Specifically, using a bell-curve instead of a power-law.
Arnold Kling, from EconLog, applies this specifically to models proclaiming various scenarios of significant man-made climate change, of which it certainly applies, but that’s not what I found the most interesting.
I found this quote from the conclusion of the article interesting:
If we accept Mr. Taleb’s premise about power-law ascendancy, we are left with a troubling question: How do you function in a world where accurate prediction is rarely possible, where history isn’t a reliable guide to the future and where the most important events cannot be anticipated? [emphasis mine]
I don’t find it troubling that I can’t perfectly anticipate or predict the future. Well, okay I’m lying. I’m scared of the future just like everyone: it’s the human condition. But to somehow think that faith in a predictive statistical model was somehow holding back the now-shattered dam separating fear and functionality seems ridiculous.
How can you function in a world that can’t be statistically predicted? We all do it every day, all the time. I think rather than fearing the future, we should embrace it and look forward to it.
Tags:
quit being a baby and go get a gun and be ready for the zombie attack thats coing
I think the decisions we make are based on historical data; we shouldn’t drink and drive because we know that it could turn out bad. We don’t race trains to the railroad crossing because we have seen mistakes numerous times. We avoid useless wars that lead to nothing but death because we have learned from the mistakes in our past.
Wait a minute.
We have a history to learn from, we just don’t care, or we are really optimistic.
If we cannot predict the future, really would it matter; most of us would spend our time trying to change it anyways right, the same thing we do now.
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-5633925-4748954?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1177514342&sr=8-1
“quit being a baby and go get a gun and be ready for the zombie attack thats coing”
http://www.amazon.com/Zombie-Survival-Guide-Complete-Protection/dp/1400049628
On my shelf at home — I’m prepared.
“We avoid useless wars that lead to nothing but death because we have learned from the mistakes in our past. ”
We do learn, sometimes we just think we learned enough that we can avoid the pitfalls of before while achieving the same initial goal. “We are really optimistic” could also be read as, “We are really arrogant” since we often think we’re better than those who came before us. And hey — sometimes we are. But sometimes we’re not.
With all of that said, I deal with the future with my ninja-like reflexes. And if you’re confused, please consult this handy reference chart of reflex distributions to see just how superb ninja reflexes are:
http://www.50pixelsofevil.com/posts/images/reflex_distribution.jpg